Florida Housing Market Braces for 9% Price Spike Under New Tax Plan

I’ll be honest with you — when a governor talks about eliminating property taxes, it sounds like a dream for homeowners. No one likes writing that yearly check, and I get why the idea hits an emotional nerve. But the moment I saw the new analysis predicting a 7% to 9% jump in Florida home prices, my first thought was: this isn’t just a tax conversation — it’s a housing-market shockwave waiting to happen.

If you already own a home in Florida, this kind of spike means instant equity. Your property value could jump — without you lifting a finger. But if you’re a renter or someone still trying to break into the market? This same plan could push the dream of homeownership even further out of reach.

That’s the tension here. One policy. Two completely different Floridas.

And that’s exactly why this story matters. It’s not just about taxes or politics — it’s about how this one move could rewrite the state’s housing math overnight. Before we go deeper into the numbers and the politics, I want you to think about something:

Would getting rid of property taxes make life easier for most people… or only for the people who are already ahead?

Tell me — what side of that line do you think you’re on right now?

What DeSantis’ “No Property Tax Plan” Actually Means for You?

Before we talk impact, let’s clear up who this plan really helps — because most people in Florida are hearing the headline, not the fine print.

According to Realtor, DeSantis is pushing to eliminate property taxes only on owner-occupied homes. That means if you live in your home full-time, you’re the target. Rentals, second homes, and commercial properties stay taxed. So the plan isn’t a blanket removal — it’s selective.

What really surprised me, though, is how the policy’s promise changes depending on where you stand today. Homeowners see freedom. Renters see nothing. First-time buyers? They might actually face even higher barriers.

And this isn’t speculation. The Realtor team — the same team behind national housing trend data — ran the model that started this entire conversation. Their projection is clear: remove property taxes, and prices jump immediately. Not over years. Not gradually. Overnight.

Why Home Prices Could Jump 7%–9% Overnight?

Let me break down the logic behind that price spike in plain English, because the economics actually make sense once you see it.

When you buy a home, you aren’t just paying for the house. You’re paying for the lifetime cost of owning it — including property taxes. Those taxes are baked into the price. If tomorrow someone cuts out a major yearly expense, the current value adjusts upward to reflect the improved “cost to own.”

That’s what economists call capitalization.

So when their team says Florida’s home values could rise 7% to 9% instantly, they’re not throwing darts. They’re applying a well-established economic principle: lower long-term ownership costs → higher present value.

And it gets bigger. They estimate a $200–$250 billion jump in total home value across Florida. That’s a windfall for anyone already inside the market. But for everyone outside? It turns the starting line into a wall.

The harsh truth is simple: this policy creates winners and losers the moment it passes.

We’ve seen similar behavior in high-demand markets before—California’s luxury segment, for example, has recently drawn a new wave of wealthy buyers reacting to tax and pricing shifts.

Why Renters and First-Time Buyers Could Be Hit the Hardest?

If you don’t own a home in Florida yet, this plan probably won’t feel like a tax cut. It’ll feel like a door slamming shut.

Prices rising 7% to 9% may sound abstract, but for a first-time buyer, that’s the difference between qualifying for a mortgage and getting pushed out of the market entirely. And since home prices in Florida are already up 42% compared with 2019, affordability is stretched thin as it is.

Renters get hit from another angle. Their units still get taxed. And landlords don’t swallow extra costs — they pass them along. Higher property taxes on rentals → higher rents for tenants. Fast.

This is one of those situations where the math and the lived reality don’t match the political message. A tax cut sold as “relief” could feel more like pressure for millions of Floridians who aren’t on the homeowner side of the equation.

If you’re renting or saving for your first home, you’re not imagining it — this plan makes the climb steeper.

And with mortgage rates recently declining to around 6.23%, as reported in our latest breakdown, many first-time buyers were finally seeing a bit of breathing room—something this price spike could erase instantly.

What DeSantis Says: “You Shouldn’t Pay Rent to the Government”

DeSantis has been consistent about one thing: he believes property taxes are a form of “perpetual rent” paid to local governments. And in a purely emotional sense, I get why that message resonates. Nobody likes a bill that never ends.

His argument is that cutting these taxes will rein in government spending and shift Florida toward a leaner, more efficient system. He’s openly said he wants this embedded in the state constitution.

Now here’s the part most people don’t hear: He wants to replace the lost tax revenue with a mix of higher contributions from sales tax, corporate income tax, and taxes on second homes and rentals.

So the burden doesn’t disappear — it just shifts.

If you’re a homestead owner, you feel lighter. If you’re a landlord, investor, or renter, the weight just moves onto your shoulders.

This redistribution angle is barely discussed in political sound bites, but it’s the mechanism that decides who wins and who pays.

If you prefer getting quick housing updates and policy changes directly on WhatsApp, there’s a channel many readers follow for real-time alerts—it’s been especially useful during fast-moving debates like this.

Why Critics Say the Plan Could Strain Schools, Roads, and Emergency Services?

Here’s where concerns go beyond housing and into everyday life.

Local governments depend heavily on property taxes to fund things you notice only when they fail — schools, fire departments, road repairs, water districts. Roughly 35% of property tax revenue goes to school funding alone.

If homestead taxes vanish, that revenue has to be replaced immediately. Otherwise, counties start cutting into essential services. And if sales tax becomes a primary backfill, it hits lower-income residents the hardest because sales taxes take a larger share of their income.

This is why economists call the plan “regressive.” It shifts tax pressure toward those who have the least buffer.

Then there’s the renter angle again: landlords won’t just absorb higher non-homestead taxes. They will raise rents. Quickly.

So when critics warn about quality-of-life declines, they’re not exaggerating. A plan built to help homeowners could unintentionally underfund the very services homeowners rely on — while raising costs for everyone else.

The 7 Competing Amendments: Why the Legislature Is Split

Here’s something most people haven’t heard about: Florida already has seven different property tax proposals sitting in the Legislature. All of them aim to change the system — but none of them match DeSantis’ full vision.

Some proposals suggest removing non-school property taxes on homeowners. Others want to eliminate taxes tied to local governments or water districts. A few are partial cutbacks instead of a complete wipeout.

If you’re confused, don’t worry — lawmakers seem confused too.

What’s interesting is DeSantis doesn’t like these seven proposals. Not because they oppose him, but because they’re not bold enough. He wants one clean constitutional amendment, placed on the 2026 ballot, that eliminates homestead property taxes entirely.

This internal divide matters. When even the political side pushing for cuts can’t agree on the details, it tells you the stakes — and the risks — are much bigger than most headlines let on.

The “Black Swan” Warning: How a Recession Could Flip This Plan Upside Down

I want to pause and explain the most unsettling part of this entire debate — the scenario housing economist Ken Johnson calls a “black swan event.”

Florida has an unusually high share of vacation homes — around 10% of all housing. These properties would still be taxed under the plan. So imagine a recession hits. Tourism slows. Out-of-state owners start selling second homes to free up cash.

That rush of listings creates a sudden supply glut. Prices fall. At the same time, sales drop… which means sales tax revenue drops. Tourism drops… so tourism revenue drops. Property tax revenue is already eliminated for homesteads.

You see the pattern forming.

Johnson’s point is blunt: if Florida removes one of its last stable revenue pillars and then gets hit by a downturn, the state could face a budget crisis and housing slump at the same time.

It’s the kind of risk no one sees coming until it’s too late — and it’s the part politicians usually don’t talk about.

Winners and Losers: Who Actually Benefits From This Plan?

Whenever a policy creates this much noise, I like breaking it down into something simple — who wins, and who doesn’t.

Winners:

• Homeowners who already have equity
• High-value homestead owners
• People planning to sell soon
• Wealthier Floridians with large properties

Losers:

• Renters (higher rents guaranteed)
• First-time buyers (higher home prices)
• Local governments (less revenue stability)
• Schools and emergency services (funding pressures)
• Investors and landlords (still taxed, higher operating costs)

This isn’t moral judgment — it’s math. The plan shifts the cost of running the state onto groups who already carry a heavier financial load.

If you’re trying to decide where you fall, ask yourself one question: Would eliminating my property tax save me more money than rising prices and weaker services would cost me?

For a lot of Floridians, the answer isn’t as obvious as political messaging makes it sound.

What This Means for Florida’s Housing Market in the Coming Years?

Short term? Homeowners would probably celebrate. A 7%–9% jump in value is real money. If you bought during the pandemic peak and have been underwater or barely breaking even, this might feel like relief.

But long term, things get murkier.

Florida is already battling rising insurance premiums, climate risk, and affordability challenges. Adding a structural tax change on top of that creates a new layer of volatility — especially when the state relies heavily on sales tax and tourism dollars that swing with the economy.

The big picture:

• Prices likely rise if the amendment passes
• Rents almost certainly rise
• Inventory stays tight
• First-time buyers face an even steeper climb
• Local governments may struggle unless they raise other fees

And with the 2026 ballot approaching, we’re heading into two years of debate, modeling, political messaging, and uncertainty — all of which affect how buyers and sellers behave right now.

If you’re planning to buy or sell, you may feel the ripple effects long before the vote happens.

Florida won’t move in isolation either—some U.S. markets are rising while others are cooling sharply, and those shifts tend to influence buyer movement across state lines.

Final Thoughts: A Tax Cut That Could Reshape Florida’s Future

Here’s where I land after digging through the data, the economics, and the politics: Eliminating property taxes sounds simple, but Florida’s housing market isn’t simple anymore. Prices are high, insurance is unpredictable, and the state depends on a delicate mix of revenues that can swing with the economy.

If this plan passes, it could reshape Florida housing in a dramatic way — some people win big, and others get pushed further out. And like most big policy shifts, the real impact depends on where you are standing today.

The question I keep coming back to is this: Is this the kind of change that builds long-term stability… or the kind that creates new risks we haven’t fully thought through yet?

I’m curious — if Florida held the vote today, would you vote for eliminating property taxes on homeowners?

If you want deeper breakdowns on market shifts across the U.S., you can explore our latest real estate insights on the Real Estate & Homeownership section.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making decisions about taxes, real estate, or investments.